Beliefs come in three flavors: true, false, and untested. Obviously we should want to have only true beliefs if we are to function as rational participants in a social and political world as complex as ours. One thing in our favor is that we cannot hold a false belief. If that sounds odd then just think of the many examples that occur daily. I believe I left the keys in the car, but when I go there to get them, they are not there. I can no longer hold that false belief. Or, I feel drops of water on my neck during a rain storm and believe the roof has sprung a leak (again). But, looking around I see that my grandson has just shot me from a fair distance with his new water pistol. I cannot hold that leaking roof false belief any longer.

Clearly then it's the untested beliefs we need to worry about.

To the rescue comes Thomas Kida with his six steps for more careful assessment of beliefs. It's worth listing them here:

• We prefer stories to statistics
• We seek to confirm, not to question, our ideas
• We rarely appreciate the role of chance and coincidence in shaping events
• We sometimes misperceive the world around us
• We tend to oversimplify our thinking
• We have faulty memories

These six concise, easily testable claims provide the organizing pattern for the book. The first virtue of this easy to read book is its organization. It is presented in twelve chapters captured within a useful introduction and a brief epilogue for review. Each chapter and each major section within a chapter carries a head note which focuses the discussion.

Euripides' Man's most valuable trait is a judicious sense of what not to believe, for example, introduces a section on developing a first-rate generating technique for testing beliefs.

1. State the claim.
2. Examine the evidence for the claim.
3. Consider alternative hypotheses.
4. Evaluate the reasonableness of each hypothesis.

When deciding whether to believe something we need to follow that four step process before spending our money for magic crystals, magnetic bracelets, alternative medical treatments, stock market tips, and before entering the voting booth.

The book is easy to read, informative, accurate, and aimed at an intelligent audience of readers interested in sharpening their skeptical and critical thinking skills. It would work well as a text book in high school and first year college critical thinking courses because it is so well written and so accessible, and because it uses a vast array of examples from the stock market, basketball, gambling, medicine, the paranormal, pseudo-science and science. Kida's general approach is to make a claim, e.g., confirming strategies maintain consistency in our beliefs, and then to ask "how does that happen?" He will then offer an analysis of the claim with a large number of real world examples to drive home the point.

When useful to the analysis he presents an authority from science of philosophy to buttress the discussion.

It is the interesting and delightful examples that make the book so delightful to read. But do not think it is superficial or merely fun, for it is not. It is a carefully crafted, subtle and useful approach to critical thinking. I would certainly use it as a complementary text in a critical thinking philosophy class. But it is also a good book for any general reader, who should not be deterred by my describing it as a good textbook for a philosophy class.

The chapter on framing and other snags is rich in example and provides a review of statistics that will help readers to navigate in the complicated realm of statistical hypotheses which are at the center of most science. Kida does not teach statistics but rather teaches us how to think about statistical claims. He discusses the psychology of belief as well as the logic of argument and the testing of evidence.

Everyone can learn from this book because, of course, smart people are just as able to make errors in thinking as are less smart people. Degrees do not make one immune from falling for bad reasoning or believing nonsense. The last time I taught a critical thinking course one of my students was a "professional" psychic who called herself Madame X. She was paying her college tuition by giving readings.  In class she joined me in showing that the paranormal stuff was nonsense by explaining for the rest of the students how she did cold readings. ("I sense you are having financial problems.") She claimed to be doing a booming business.

Her clients? "Faculty here at the college," she said.

© 2007 Bob Lane

Bob Lane is a retired teacher of English and Philosophy who is currently an Honourary Research Associate in Philosophy at Malaspina University-College in British Columbia, Canada.

Categories: Philosophical, General